Envision the year 2040: a significant portion of the population relies on weight-loss medications, profoundly altering various industries. Airline profits surge as passenger numbers dwindle, while the sweets section in grocery stores is pushed to obscurity. Health food stores become ubiquitous, and sales of alcoholic beverages and tobacco plummet, leading to the closure of numerous addiction treatment facilities.

Britain, previously one of the most overweight developed nations, has effectively addressed its obesity epidemic, resulting in substantial savings for the NHS. Wellness centers shift their focus from weight loss to promoting “longevity” and “stress relief.”

Recent presentations at the European Congress on Obesity in Malaga highlighted the potential of new medications like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro. These drugs not only assist with diabetes and weight reduction but may also prevent heart disease, reduce cancer risks, lower chances of dementia, mitigate depression, and aid in addiction recovery.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that these medications might not only change our relationship with food but could also signal a broader health revolution.

The impacts of this transformation appear to broaden monthly, potentially influencing various sectors, including alcohol consumption and airline fuel usage.

Economist Daniel Susskind notes, “We are just beginning to grasp the economic implications of these medications. Obesity alone accounts for approximately 8% of the NHS budget. This could be just the tip of the iceberg, similar to the transformative economic effects penicillin had in the previous century.”

The most immediate effect of these medications is on body weight. More than half of British adults are considered overweight or obese, a situation that could see substantial change in a decade or so. Currently, about half a million people in the UK use these drugs, a figure that is expected to rise sharply as the NHS addresses obesity.

A recent study indicated that providing weight-loss medications to all eligible Britons could yield a £4.5 billion economic uplift per year, primarily by reducing sick leave.

Professor John Deanfield, a cardiologist from University College London, asserts that these medications will influence numerous societal aspects. “They will impact various facets of life,” he explained, mentioning the restaurant and airline industries among those likely to be affected.

The medications might even alter our zest for life. Consider Anna, a 47-year-old who felt unhappy with her weight. “Counting calories is effective initially but becomes increasingly difficult,” she shared. “The gym wasn’t enjoyable for me.” This led her to try Wegovy. Although initially hesitant to misrepresent her weight, she found herself greatly benefiting from the medication, remarking, “It has been life-changing, and I lost three stone, weighing less than I did in my 30s.”

After months of regular injections, however, Anna recognized a notable shift in her relationship with food and social interactions. “I used to eagerly look forward to restaurant menus, but then I started pushing my food around my plate and lost interest in wine, opting only for a Diet Coke instead,” she described.

Family meals, once a bonding activity with her children, became mundane. “Planning meals and cooking for friends used to be fulfilling; now it just feels like a chore,” she reflected. Though she achieved her weight goals, she felt a disconnect from her previous self.

Initially formulated as a diabetes treatment, researchers quickly discovered that these “GLP-1” therapies, which replicate the hormone responsible for the sensation of fullness, serve as effective appetite suppressants.

The effects of this trend are starting to unfold. Alex Gourlay, executive chairman of Holland & Barrett, noted a notable rise in health food sales, attributing it to the reduced cravings for unhealthy foods among those using the new medications. In response to shifting consumer preferences, the retail chain is adding more nutritious ingredients to their product lines.

Additionally, a 2023 report highlighted that if airline passengers were just ten pounds lighter on average, United Airlines could save approximately $80 million annually on fuel expenses.

Supermarket chains are closely monitoring the impact of these weight-loss medications. Walmart acknowledged a slight decrease in overall sales linked to the increase in weight-loss drug usage, suggesting shoppers are purchasing fewer and lower-calorie items.

The alcoholic beverage market could also feel repercussions. Earlier this year, Fundsmith Equity divested its shares in Diageo, a major drinks firm, due to concerns that weight-loss drugs could negatively impact alcohol sales.

The introduction of these medications has already disrupted the weight-loss industry, leading to significant changes such as WeightWatchers filing for bankruptcy in the U.S. after losing a substantial portion of its clientele to those opting for the ease of medication over traditional weight-loss methods. Surveys indicate that one in eight adults in the U.S. — around 25 million people — have already tried these drugs.

Even fitness centers are adapting their business models. Some gyms are introducing specific programs tailored for users of weight-loss medications to help preserve muscle mass as they lose weight.

Deanfield, whose research is partially funded by Novo Nordisk, the firm behind Wegovy and Ozempic, believes the emerging data is reshaping medical perceptions of the drugs. “These medications are transitioning from merely weight-loss options to treatments for fundamental health issues we aim to prevent,” he said.

With one billion individuals classified as obese worldwide, pharmaceutical companies are anticipating a vast surge in demand, with speculations of an “unknown ceiling” for consumption likely to rise when pill formulations become available, the first of which — Eli Lilly’s Orforglipron — is projected to launch in 2026.

Deanfield argues these medications could surpass statins, currently used by nearly eight million people in the UK for heart disease and stroke prevention. “While statins have proven beneficial, convincing patients of their advantages has been a challenge, as they do not witness immediate results; in contrast, weight-loss drug users can quickly observe their benefits.”

Despite their promise, these medications are not without complexities and lingering questions. Many healthcare professionals express concern about relying on pharmaceuticals from large companies to remedy problems stemming from the processed food industry. Short-term side effects of GLP-1 medications include nausea, constipation, and fatigue. The long-term effects remain uncertain, with fears that the weight loss may primarily result from muscle loss, leading to potential frailty issues in the future.

Moreover, these treatments come with a hefty price tag — approximately £200 monthly for private use. Much like statins, which have decreased in cost over time, the true widespread benefits may only be realized once the patents expire and generic alternatives are available, with Ozempic’s patent set to expire in 2033.

There remains no clear exit strategy for patients from these drugs; one study presented in Malaga demonstrated that individuals who discontinue the medication often regain weight within ten months. This raises concerns that many users will find themselves reliant on these treatments for an extended period.

Anna experienced this firsthand. Discontent with how the medication affected her social and family dynamics, she ceased using Wegovy after several months. “Once I stopped, my appetite returned with a vengeance,” she recalled, leading to a rapid weight regain, prompting her to resume injections.

“The truth is, I wouldn’t have achieved my weight loss without them,” she concluded.

Additional reporting: Eleanor Hayward in Malaga